A powerful severe weather outbreak is forecast to sweep across the Southern Plains from Friday through Mother’s Day Sunday, threatening nearly 40 million people with large hail, winds up to 60 mph — and the possibility of tornadoes.
What’s happening this weekend
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has placed southern Kansas, much of central and eastern Oklahoma, and parts of North Texas under a Level 2 out of 5 severe thunderstorm risk beginning Friday afternoon. Storms are expected to fire late Friday and roll through the evening, bringing large hail and damaging wind gusts.
Saturday brings a brief reduction in intensity, primarily targeting extreme northeast Texas and southwest Oklahoma. But the threat rebuilds Sunday — Mother’s Day — when Dallas and parts of Central Texas face another Level 2 risk with damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornado potential.
May historically sees more tornadoes than any other month of the year — but Tornado Alley has been unusually quiet so far this season. Forecasters say that silence may be masking what’s building.
The bigger picture: Late May could be worse
This weekend’s storms are only the opening act. A large dip in the jet stream has kept severe weather suppressed over the Plains — but long-range forecasts from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center indicate that pattern will shift by mid-to-late May, allowing warm Gulf air to surge northward and fuel a more traditional, and potentially dangerous, tornado season across Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and North Texas.
The setup closely resembles conditions that led to the deadly April 23–28 tornado outbreak across the Southern Plains — an event still fresh in the memory of communities that were hit.
Earlier this week, Mississippi was struck by multiple tornadoes during a Tornado Emergency. So far this spring, the most severe storms have concentrated in the Midwest and Deep South rather than the classic Tornado Alley corridor — but forecasters warn that is likely to change.
What to watch
Above-normal rainfall is expected across the Southwest and central Plains in the weeks ahead. Residents across the region — particularly in Kansas, Oklahoma, and North Texas — should monitor local forecasts closely and have a severe weather plan in place before the pattern shifts.
