WICHITA, Kansas — A severe weather outbreak is taking shape across a 1,000-mile stretch of the country, and forecasters are warning this one could turn violent.
A rare Level 4 out of 5 severe storm threat — the second-highest possible — has been issued for parts of central and northeastern Kansas stretching into southeastern Nebraska beginning Monday.
Threats like this do not get issued often. When they do, forecasters are confident the conditions are in place for something serious.
Why This Storm System Is So Dangerous
A powerful upper-level storm system pushing out of the Southwest will collide head-on with a surge of hot, humid air sitting across the middle of the country.
That combination creates what forecasters describe as an atmospheric powder keg — an environment primed to produce violent storms with very little warning.
By Monday afternoon, an atmospheric “lid” is expected to break, triggering explosive thunderstorm development along a cold front and dryline, according to the FOX Forecast Center.
Once that lid breaks, storms will intensify rapidly.
Tornadoes and Massive Hail Are the Biggest Threats
The initial storms are expected to quickly develop into rotating supercells — the type of thunderstorm most likely to produce tornadoes.
Forecasters warn that conditions could be nearly perfect for violent, long-track tornadoes in the primary threat zone covering central Kansas, southeastern Nebraska, southwestern Iowa, and northwestern Missouri.
On top of tornado risk, large hail ranging from baseball to softball-sized is also possible from these supercells.
That is the kind of hail that can shatter car windows, damage roofs, and injure anyone caught outside.
A Dozen States Will Feel the Impact
The severe weather is not expected to stay contained to one area.
Dangerous conditions are forecast to persist through Monday night as a wall of heavy rain and powerful winds pushes across at least a dozen states.
By Tuesday, the storm system expands into the Ohio Valley, where a Level 2 out of 5 severe storm threat has been issued.
Heavy rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected from northern Minnesota all the way down through northeast Texas, bringing a minor risk of flash flooding as storms continue pushing east.
When Will It End — And What Comes Next
The multi-day severe weather threat is expected to wrap up by the end of Tuesday.
However, wet weather is forecast to return for millions of Americans heading into Memorial Day weekend, so conditions across the region are worth watching closely in the days ahead.
If you are in any part of the threat zone, now is the time to review your emergency plan, identify your nearest shelter, and keep a weather alert on your phone.
Are you in the path of this storm system? Tell us where you are and what conditions look like in your area — share your update in the comments below.
